cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/53716337

China’s zero tariffs for the next two years to African countries that support the Chinese dragon’s one-China policy provide the continent the opportunity to diversify and add value to its export products off the back of a growing China, or worse, to continue to export raw materials to the Asian giant and therefore remain stuck in the post-colonial raw material exporting trap.

…

African countries continued to export raw materials to their partners and former colonial powers, but without processing these it meant that the countries did not industrialise, and in many cases even de-industrialised further.

…

African countries will only benefit from China’s zero tariffs if they specifically leverage China to build manufacturing in African countries, transfer technology and skills, add value to raw materials and secure Chinese financing for industry-relevant infrastructure.

…

African countries hoping they can export raw materials such as agricultural products and minerals to China in the long term will make a strategic blunder. China has adopted a new ambitious 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) whereby it aims to decouple the country from agricultural imports and become a self-sufficient agriculture producer.

…

China is likely to expect that African countries signing up to its zero-tariff policy will have to support China at international fora and side with it in its disputes with others.

In 2024, China offered a tariff-free policy to Least Developed Countries that supported its “One China Policy”. Up to 33 African countries qualified for this.

…

China’s offering of the zero-tariff policies to Africa may lock African countries firmly into China’s sphere of control.

…

Zero tariffs are never “zero”. There are non-trade barriers. African products will face non-tariff barriers – measures other than customs duties that restrict agricultural trade. Non-tariff barriers include phytosanitary barriers and costs, food safety rules, product-specific regulations, import quotas, licensing requirements and customs processes.

…

There is a danger is that African countries put all their eggs in China’s zero tariffs and continue to neglect building the African free trade area. A functioning African free trade area could help African countries scale currently uneven and relatively small production of goods, built production clusters and regional value chains, and thus create a robust manufacturing base. Many individual African countries do not produce enough to compete in the Chinese or other large markets.

…

“If every African country tries to export to China on its own, the benefits of zero tariffs may remain fragmented. But if AfCFTA (African Continental Free Trade Area) is used to build regional production systems, pool supply, harmonise standards and connect producers with processors and logistics hubs, China’s market could become an external demand engine for African value chains,” writes the African Business magazine.

…

Web Archive link