My conspiracy theory is that declining birthrates aren’t actually caused just by personal choices and trends like women becoming more educated. My conspiracy theory is that global birth rates are actually plummeting due to industrial pollution, and it’s being blamed on individual actions and choices rather than the actual environmental problems at the root of it.
This isn’t a conspiracy theory. The reduction in testosterone and sperm count are related to environmental factors. The average sperm count goes to 0 by 2045. I’m not sure why we’re not talking about this more.
I could see this being true, my personal conspiracy theory follows yours but is plastics specifically. In 50 years we’ll look back on the age of plastic the same way we look back at leaded gas or asbestos.
Yea I agree we know bpa and other chemicals mimic estrogen when metabolized. Interesting that having a lot less children might be the only way to save our planet from total destruction. Ironic
That’s the thing. I know that it’s usually said that women’s education is the best predictor of declining birth rates, but I can imagine women’s education rates being highly correlated with levels of endocrine disruptive chemical exposure. When countries adopt modern cultural norms, they also tend to start using a lot more plastic and other artificial materials.
And the general destruction of the middle class. My parents were teen parents and while it was tough, they could afford it. I can’t afford a kid at all, and I’ve worked my ass off.
But yeah, stress, depression, fear, anger, chemical and hormonal imbalances, climate change, fascism, overworked and underpaid bs, attacks on bodily autonomy, surveillance and tracking, the death of 3rd places, the poverty of free time, unaffordable housing, unaffordable transportation, hours-long commutes, staggering wealth inequality, state violence, white nationalists endless wars, etc… I don’t blame anybody for putting off or entirely deciding against having children
Could also be epigenetic effects that we currently do not well understand.
Turns out that you actually can and do sort of pass on the cumulative effects of what has happened to you before you reproduce. And this does seem to include testosterone production.
Now that’s paywalled, but the abstract seems to me to indicate that at least broadly… this is probably part of the puzzle.
Stress, your metabolic state due to your diet (of ultra processed foods), environmental pollutants, things like that… may significantly contribute to how much T your offspring are gonna be making.
Well maybe not epigenetic, but look up the so called ‘Mouse Utopia Experiment’.
Basically, when you entirely remove the ability of social mammals to feel like they are actively doing something to succeed in that society… social dynamics invert and social instincts basically now work in an ultimately destructive way.
The mice become territorial despite there being enough resources for all of them.
Extreme mating selection pressure basically causes incels, weaker mice that aren’t allowed to mate, that stronger male mice just basically attack for sport.
Then you get looksmaxxers, ‘the beautiful ones’, some of the incel male mice switch to just preening themselves all the time, never breed, but never try to, so they don’t get attacked.
Female mice stop caring for their children, become more polyamorous.
More male become gay or bi. Sometimes consensually, sometimes not, as part of an assault.
As more generations come into being, they learn the behaviors of their parents, of the mice in their environment, and thus basically stop acting like ‘normal’ mice.
… this all results in an extremely hostile social dynamic that ultimately leads to basically what would be called a slew of mental/behavioral disorders compared to your Gen 0 starter mice, and this leads to population collapse. Tons of unneccessary aggression, way way lower birth rates.
So … in a situation of abundance, in a species that is evolutionarily hardwired to compete for dominance over scarce resources, thus creating a kind of hierarchy… well the instincts for that do not go away, despite them not actually being needed, strictly speaking.
And those instincts are what causes the population to… correct its overshoot, sort of, but in a catastrophic way.
I would posit that this is not perfectly analagous to humans… but broadly similar.
Theoretically, we have the sentience and sapience to truly realize that we have outgrown some of our instincts, and intentionally replace them with better ones.
In practice?
… TBD, I guess.
Like, imagine trying to explain the concept of a parasocial relationship a human nowadays may have with a streamer, or a massive super fan or brand loyalist to whatever company… try to explain that to a person from 1810.
You could explain it to them. People from 200 years ago are not ‘stupider’ than people now.
But they would still likely find the entire thing completely insane.
Just like climate change. It’s happening because you didn’t recycle that can, not because of the hundreds of open cut mines approved by bribed politicians.
My conspiracy theory is that declining birthrates aren’t actually caused just by personal choices and trends like women becoming more educated. My conspiracy theory is that global birth rates are actually plummeting due to industrial pollution, and it’s being blamed on individual actions and choices rather than the actual environmental problems at the root of it.
This is an interesting theory, you would need to find birthrates matching the industrial pollution rate, which my guess is it doesn’t totally. I’m sure it’s a measure of multiple factors where a big one is teenagers are having less sex and first sexual encounter is later. https://opa.hhs.gov/adolescent-health/adolescent-sexual-and-reproductive-health/data-and-statistics-on-adolescent-sexual-and-reproductive-health (Look at figure 1)
This isn’t a conspiracy theory. The reduction in testosterone and sperm count are related to environmental factors. The average sperm count goes to 0 by 2045. I’m not sure why we’re not talking about this more.
I could see this being true, my personal conspiracy theory follows yours but is plastics specifically. In 50 years we’ll look back on the age of plastic the same way we look back at leaded gas or asbestos.
Yea I agree we know bpa and other chemicals mimic estrogen when metabolized. Interesting that having a lot less children might be the only way to save our planet from total destruction. Ironic
There’s the whole endocrine inhibitor plastic contamination of literally everything thing.
But surely a hormone blocking compound being present in all foods, ground water, soil, oceans and atmosphere wouldn’t be related to this.
That’s the thing. I know that it’s usually said that women’s education is the best predictor of declining birth rates, but I can imagine women’s education rates being highly correlated with levels of endocrine disruptive chemical exposure. When countries adopt modern cultural norms, they also tend to start using a lot more plastic and other artificial materials.
Iirc, some plastics can act similar to estrogen… so your theory probably holds more truth than you like.
And the general destruction of the middle class. My parents were teen parents and while it was tough, they could afford it. I can’t afford a kid at all, and I’ve worked my ass off.
But yeah, stress, depression, fear, anger, chemical and hormonal imbalances, climate change, fascism, overworked and underpaid bs, attacks on bodily autonomy, surveillance and tracking, the death of 3rd places, the poverty of free time, unaffordable housing, unaffordable transportation, hours-long commutes, staggering wealth inequality, state violence, white nationalists endless wars, etc… I don’t blame anybody for putting off or entirely deciding against having children
Could also be epigenetic effects that we currently do not well understand.
Turns out that you actually can and do sort of pass on the cumulative effects of what has happened to you before you reproduce. And this does seem to include testosterone production.
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11010-025-05366-0
Now that’s paywalled, but the abstract seems to me to indicate that at least broadly… this is probably part of the puzzle.
Stress, your metabolic state due to your diet (of ultra processed foods), environmental pollutants, things like that… may significantly contribute to how much T your offspring are gonna be making.
I often wonder if there is an epigenetic marker carried along that says “THERE ARE 8 BILLION OF US NOW. LET’S TONE THAT DOWN A LITTLE OK”
Well maybe not epigenetic, but look up the so called ‘Mouse Utopia Experiment’.
Basically, when you entirely remove the ability of social mammals to feel like they are actively doing something to succeed in that society… social dynamics invert and social instincts basically now work in an ultimately destructive way.
The mice become territorial despite there being enough resources for all of them.
Extreme mating selection pressure basically causes incels, weaker mice that aren’t allowed to mate, that stronger male mice just basically attack for sport.
Then you get looksmaxxers, ‘the beautiful ones’, some of the incel male mice switch to just preening themselves all the time, never breed, but never try to, so they don’t get attacked.
Female mice stop caring for their children, become more polyamorous.
More male become gay or bi. Sometimes consensually, sometimes not, as part of an assault.
As more generations come into being, they learn the behaviors of their parents, of the mice in their environment, and thus basically stop acting like ‘normal’ mice.
… this all results in an extremely hostile social dynamic that ultimately leads to basically what would be called a slew of mental/behavioral disorders compared to your Gen 0 starter mice, and this leads to population collapse. Tons of unneccessary aggression, way way lower birth rates.
So … in a situation of abundance, in a species that is evolutionarily hardwired to compete for dominance over scarce resources, thus creating a kind of hierarchy… well the instincts for that do not go away, despite them not actually being needed, strictly speaking.
And those instincts are what causes the population to… correct its overshoot, sort of, but in a catastrophic way.
I would posit that this is not perfectly analagous to humans… but broadly similar.
Theoretically, we have the sentience and sapience to truly realize that we have outgrown some of our instincts, and intentionally replace them with better ones.
In practice?
… TBD, I guess.
Like, imagine trying to explain the concept of a parasocial relationship a human nowadays may have with a streamer, or a massive super fan or brand loyalist to whatever company… try to explain that to a person from 1810.
You could explain it to them. People from 200 years ago are not ‘stupider’ than people now.
But they would still likely find the entire thing completely insane.
Just like climate change. It’s happening because you didn’t recycle that can, not because of the hundreds of open cut mines approved by bribed politicians.
Don’t forget pervasive lead poisoning, it fucks up the baby basically day one by fucking up the neural crest.
I’m fairly convinced of this too