Both the U.S. and (the People’s Republic of) China are trying to establish the first lunar outposts, and it is possible that we will see lunar colonies within our lifetimes. When that happens, do you think there will be a movement towards independence, just as the colonies of Britain, France, Spain, etc. vyed for freedom? Would this be peaceful or violent, and how would either work? How realistic is an independent lunar nation, given the hostile living conditions? What would lunar culture look like? Would it be a mix of American and Chinese culture, or something new entirely?
Or do you think the Moon and other bodies in our Solar System will become internationally run (and protected) areas, a bit like how Antarctica is on Earth?
The moon is too close and I don’t think it will ever be self sustaining. Any attempt to rebel and they get starved out. The more likely thing is they defect to some other country that starts supplying them. (This is still highly unlikely). I don’t think people will live on the moon long enough to try that - they may spend a year there and someone will have a baby there, but they will all go home to earth.
Mars could potentially support a self sustaining outpost large enough to rebel. Mars is also far enough away that it wouldn’t be worth attacking. They will likely be let go as soon as they are self sustaining because earth will be bored by then and glad to not support them. Unlike the moon, going back home is a long trip so people will try to avoid it.