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Australia’s last ambassador to China says Xi Jinping is overseeing a Leninist dictatorship but is nowhere near ready to attack Taiwan because he fears being deposed if the military fails.

The Chinese President has said he wants the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to be ready to unify the democratically ruled island with the mainland from as early as next year.

But Graham Fletcher, who served in Beijing as Australia’s Ambassador during the pandemic and the breakdown of relations between the former Coalition government and the Communist regime, said President Xi was not poised to strike anytime soon.

“I’m pretty sure China’s not ready,” Mr Fletcher told The Nightly in an extended interview to discuss the release of his paper for the Lowy Institute on the state of the bilateral relationship.

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“Use of force is not their preferred course of action. That’s the last resort after everything else has failed.”

China has stepped up the frequency and intensity of its military operations around Taiwan and analysts say the activity mimics dress rehearsals for how the PLA could blockade Taiwan.

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This has prompted speculation among China watchers that the CCP does not want to carry out a high-risk invasion but instead wants to cut off the island from the rest of the world and deny it access to military support and essential resources, including food and energy.

The blockade scenario is also considered more attractive to China as it could make it harder for the United States and allies to calibrate their response if the Chinese do not trigger outright military action first.

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But Mr Fletcher said it was unlikely that the CCP would begin that course of action without being prepared to go the whole way.

“No, they wouldn’t start a blockade unless they were prepared to follow through with an invasion. Because what happens if the blockade doesn’t work?” he said.

“There’s too much heated rhetoric about it’s about to happen, and it’s not. Sure, they’re doing lots of stuff, pressuring exercises, you name it, but I don’t think there’s a timeline in Beijing that they’re working towards.

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But former prime minister and China scholar Kevin Rudd is among those who think President Xi could move on Taiwan while US President Donald Trump is in office.

“I’m worried very much that Xi Jinping could miscalculate in 2028,” Mr Rudd recently told The New York Times, citing the Taiwanese presidential elections that year.

“And he’s aware that 2028 is a presidential election year here in the United States.

“What do I fear? A miscalculation by Xi Jinping about the level of American resolve. Do the Chinese conclude post-Iran, for example, that the likelihood of any American leadership to deploy forces in the event of a Taiwan crisis would be reduced as a result of the Iran experience?

“And then there’s the more mechanical question of the extent to which the American arsenal depth, magazine depth and capability set have been impaired as a result of Iran.

“So my concern as an analyst is: Could he arrive at a conclusion through a bout of excessive self-confidence that a unique opportunity has arisen?”

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China cut off communication with Australia and hit producers with $20 billion worth of tariffs, which were lifted when Labor came into power, aiming to “stabilise” the relationship.

The Prime Minister has met President Xi four times, twice during visits to China. During Mr Albanese’s first term, the government successfully secured the release of Chinese-born Australian journalist and writer Cheng Lei, who was detained in Beijing on fake charges for three years and two months.