Both the U.S. and (the People’s Republic of) China are trying to establish the first lunar outposts, and it is possible that we will see lunar colonies within our lifetimes. When that happens, do you think there will be a movement towards independence, just as the colonies of Britain, France, Spain, etc. vyed for freedom? Would this be peaceful or violent, and how would either work? How realistic is an independent lunar nation, given the hostile living conditions? What would lunar culture look like? Would it be a mix of American and Chinese culture, or something new entirely?
Or do you think the Moon and other bodies in our Solar System will become internationally run (and protected) areas, a bit like how Antarctica is on Earth?
Looking at the USA, it would be far more likely that American lunar colonies would be given a path to statehood long before independence came up. The USA already has two states not on the American mainland. The only colony rejected from being integrated was the Philippines and that was because Americans didn’t want to integrate such a large non-white population into the country. I don’t think a lunar colony colonized by Americans would have that issue.
Looking at China, I don’t know. China would likely attempt a similar process of integration, maybe to the point where senior political leaders have a stint running a bureaucracy on a lunar colony.
As to whether the Moon would unify its colonies as they kick out Earth colonizers, likely not. The independence wave in the Americas never united across across colonizing powers. The only way that there would be a united Moon is if one nation conquered the Moon and lost it or post colonization wars saw a post-colonization country conquer the Moon; this would likely not happen given the Moon’s strategic importance to Earth. Earth could accept an independent Mars; Earth could never accept an independent and unified Moon.