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Cake day: June 16th, 2023

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  • I don’t want the USA to invade Cuba, but I don’t think that Cuba could credibly resist an occupation.

    Cuba is isolated from any ally who could offer military supplies, including drones. It is also fairly close to the US mainland, allowing for easy supply from the US.

    What I expect would happen is that the US would force some minor restoration of capital to pre-revolution owners and install a government filled with a mix of government collaborators and Cuban-Americans with a mandate to transform the Cuban economy.

    Unless the new government is wildly incompetent and corrupt, I expect that there would be enough stateside support to ensure that the new government is successful for the first few years. Keeping enough collaborators, which is something likely to happen with Trump, would likely prevent the whole government from engaging in an organized resistance. The likely dropping off the embargo will also allow an increase in economic conditions on the island, muting resistance of the rest of the citizenry.









  • The value of experience is logarithmic. You’re going to learn far less in the tenth year of doing something than the first year. Since management usually doesn’t start at year one, they are still in the part of the curve that rises faster.

    Also, a lot of the value in higher levels of experience is usually management adjacent, like knowing what order to perform different tasks on a project and identifying when there may be issues beforehand. Someone who remains an individual contributor isn’t going to be providing value for technical roles adjacent to management.







  • For physical labor no one wants to do, you can finesse your response to be less “not my job” and more “I have other tasks I need to do now as part of my job”. It may sound similar, but one is making it so that you are determining what is and isn’t your responsibility and the other is pushing that decision on someone else.

    Someone else hired you to push people around. You can’t override your boss, so you need to focus on the work they give you and take the breaks you can on their time table. A nurse may have deserved status, but unless the chain of command runs through them, you got to follow the chain.




  • An accelerationist is picking someone who will collapse the empire due to incompetence and destroying American institutions. Between Trump and Harris, I don’t see Harris causing a collapse of American institutions like Trump.

    Also, in regards to Iran, Trump has been far more antagonistic than Biden and Democrats in general were. The Biden administration at least needed a false flag attack to support Israel and a lot of the opposition came from Democrats. Trump got rid of Obama’s multilateral nuclear treaty and has participated in Israeli attacks where Israel was the aggressor.