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Cake day: June 16th, 2023

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  • In the context of “what did the military action physically do?” it is important to recognize the difference between direct action and additional effects caused by the reaction from the affected government.

    The attack on Venezuela was orders of magnitude less than the attack/war with Iran. Yet, Venezuela gave up financial control of its oil supply while Iran might be getting unprecedented control over a strategic waterway. If a government is going to resist American imperialism, it needs both the means and the will to resist. Iran has it, Venezuela didn’t have it, and early indications seem like Cuba is more like Venezuela than Iran.



  • I don’t want the USA to invade Cuba, but I don’t think that Cuba could credibly resist an occupation.

    Cuba is isolated from any ally who could offer military supplies, including drones. It is also fairly close to the US mainland, allowing for easy supply from the US.

    What I expect would happen is that the US would force some minor restoration of capital to pre-revolution owners and install a government filled with a mix of government collaborators and Cuban-Americans with a mandate to transform the Cuban economy.

    Unless the new government is wildly incompetent and corrupt, I expect that there would be enough stateside support to ensure that the new government is successful for the first few years. Keeping enough collaborators, which is something likely to happen with Trump, would likely prevent the whole government from engaging in an organized resistance. The likely dropping off the embargo will also allow an increase in economic conditions on the island, muting resistance of the rest of the citizenry.









  • The value of experience is logarithmic. You’re going to learn far less in the tenth year of doing something than the first year. Since management usually doesn’t start at year one, they are still in the part of the curve that rises faster.

    Also, a lot of the value in higher levels of experience is usually management adjacent, like knowing what order to perform different tasks on a project and identifying when there may be issues beforehand. Someone who remains an individual contributor isn’t going to be providing value for technical roles adjacent to management.