Both the U.S. and (the People’s Republic of) China are trying to establish the first lunar outposts, and it is possible that we will see lunar colonies within our lifetimes. When that happens, do you think there will be a movement towards independence, just as the colonies of Britain, France, Spain, etc. vyed for freedom? Would this be peaceful or violent, and how would either work? How realistic is an independent lunar nation, given the hostile living conditions? What would lunar culture look like? Would it be a mix of American and Chinese culture, or something new entirely?
Or do you think the Moon and other bodies in our Solar System will become internationally run (and protected) areas, a bit like how Antarctica is on Earth?
Most of the colonization of the Americas was mercantilist in origin. The initial discovery was started as a way to find a trade route to China and many colonization efforts were more about resource extraction than anything else; it took a century before colonies started popping up focused on religious freedom.
As for the comparison to Antarctica, there was an intentional pause put on colonization as it became apparent that colonization was finally within humanity’s technological grasp and there were possible mineral rights that would make colonization worth it.
Colonization will likely be slow, but I expect that economic uses for the Moon will be found.